Framing Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution : Understanding the Reasons for Failure and Assessing the Future

Despite a 14-year-old cease-fire in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, troops from Armenia, Azerbaijan and the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic still occupy trenches on a 500-mile long line of contact that sees near-daily cease-fire violations. While many criticize the conflict resolution efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group, the UN and the European Union, the gloomy outlook for a peace deal cannot be blamed on international or regional organizations. The standoff between the parties to the conflict is a reality of the complex history of the Caucasus and the post-conflict developments on the political and security scenes there. The genocide of approximately one million Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 and only two decades of independence for Armenians over the past millennium make it extremely difficult for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to see any benefit in making major concessions, such as returning to Azerbaijan the seven territories still controlled by the ethnic Armenians. A continuing standoff may be the best hope, as an ongoing arms race points towards renewed war.